St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-3
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to left, Contreras scored.3–7
- 9Walker singled to right, Burleson scored, Gorman to second, Contreras to third.2–7
- 9Gorman singled to center, Herrera scored, Contreras to second, Burleson to third.1–7
- 8Laureano homered to right center (399 feet).0–7
- 7Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Merrill scored.0–6
- 7Merrill tripled to right, Fermin scored, Tatis Jr. scored and Machado scored.0–5
- 4Cronenworth homered to right center (398 feet), Laureano scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML STL +170 / SD -205
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- SD: Elo 56.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- SD -181
- STL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +46 Elo | SD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3024–32 | Road vs home | 35–194th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–57 | 62–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 25–33 |
| Underdog | 33–21 | 37–16 |
| Overs–unders | 59–53 | 46–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–9 SD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.