St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin singled to right, Iglesias scored.8–5
- 9Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Donovan scored.8–4
- 9Burleson singled to center, Scott II scored, Herrera to second, Donovan to third.7–4
- 5Winn doubled to left, Burleson scored and Herrera scored.6–4
- 4Pagés homered to left (422 feet), Winn scored and Gorman scored.4–4
- 4Gorman singled to center, Contreras scored, Winn to second.1–4
- 3Merrill homered to center (415 feet).0–4
- 2Fermin grounded out to second, Laureano scored, Cronenworth to second.0–3
- 2Laureano tripled to right, Bogaerts scored.0–2
- 1Machado singled to left, Arraez scored, Machado out stretching at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML STL +125 / SD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- SD: Elo 60.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -135
- STL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +72 Elo | SD 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3023–32 | Road vs home | 35–183rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 15306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–57 | 62–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 25–32 |
| Underdog | 32–21 | 37–16 |
| Overs–unders | 58–53 | 45–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–9 SD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.