St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pozo singled to right, Hampson scored, Nootbaar to third.3–2
- 8Pages grounded out to second, Ruiz scored.2–2
- 8Herrera homered to center (428 feet).2–1
- 4Freeman homered to right center (387 feet).1–1
- 2Winn homered to left (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 60%
- ML STL +140 / LAD -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.3 – 4.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +8 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +88 Elo | LAD 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3024–33 | Road vs home | 35–2110th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 15502nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–58 | 48–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 36–56 |
| Underdog | 33–22 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 60–53 | 58–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–10 LAD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.