Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rays- Christopher MorelBatting2-4
- Shane BazPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Freeman homered to right (376 feet).5–0
- 4Betts hit sacrifice fly to left, Edman scored.4–0
- 4Freeland singled to center, Conforto scored, Edman to third.3–0
- 1Freeman doubled to right, Ohtani scored and Smith scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +12 Elo | LAD 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 6th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 31–2818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 150914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–63 | 56–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 34–56 | 20–38 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 58–51 | 46–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–3 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.