Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gray grounded into fielder's choice to third, J. Lowe scored, Caballero out at second.5–7
- 8Volpe homered to right center.4–7
- 7Walls doubled to center, Fortes scored.4–6
- 4Goldschmidt singled to left, Wells scored, Rice to second.3–6
- 4Volpe scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Wells stole second.3–5
- 4Volpe scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Wells stole second.3–5
- 4Volpe singled to center, Domínguez scored.3–4
- 3Bellinger homered to right (383 feet), Wells scored and Rice scored.3–3
- 3Aranda homered to right center (403 feet).3–0
- 1DeLuca tripled to right, Díaz scored and Aranda scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML TB +155 / NYY -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -166
- TB +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +4 | TB: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +53 Elo | NYY 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 31–2212th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15335th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–52 | 49–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–37 | 39–52 |
| Underdog | 35–15 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 44–63 | 48–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 18–16 NYY in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 34.