Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting2-3
- Cam SchlittlerPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz hit sacrifice fly to left, Caballero scored.4–2
- 5J. Lowe singled to center, Díaz scored, Aranda to third.3–2
- 1McMahon walked, Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Stanton to third.2–2
- 1Chisholm Jr. walked, Domínguez scored, Stanton to second, Bellinger to third.2–1
- 1Caminero homered to left center (397 feet), Aranda scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML TB +105 / NYY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +32 Elo | NYY 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 31–2111th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–52 | 49–56 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–37 | 39–51 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 44–62 | 48–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 17–16 NYY in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 33.