Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rice scored on a balk, Grisham to second on a balk, McMahon to third on a balk.9–4
- 8Rice scored on a balk, Grisham to second on a balk, McMahon to third on a balk.9–4
- 7Stanton homered to right (358 feet), Goldschmidt scored.9–3
- 7Schwarber doubled to center, Turner scored and Rojas scored.9–1
- 7Sosa homered to center (424 feet), Kepler scored.7–1
- 6Turner doubled to right, Stott scored.5–1
- 4Domínguez singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Volpe to third.4–1
- 4Turner grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kepler scored, Rojas out at second, Stott to third.4–0
- 4Rojas walked, Marsh scored, Stott to second, Kepler to third.3–0
- 3Harper homered to right center (425 feet).2–0
- 1Realmuto singled to left, Turner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / NYY +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- NYY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −7 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +1 Elo | PHI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 30–2013th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 4th of 301539 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–52 | 48–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 37–44 | 39–51 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 46–57 | 47–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–5 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.