Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner tripled to right, Stott scored.12–5
- 9Stott doubled to right, Sosa scored and Kepler scored.11–5
- 9Sosa singled to left, Castellanos scored, Kepler to second.9–5
- 8Schwarber homered to right (380 feet), Turner scored.8–5
- 7Judge hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored.6–5
- 7Volpe homered to left (347 feet).6–4
- 7Realmuto homered to left center (414 feet), Schwarber scored and Castellanos scored.6–3
- 7Castellanos reached on infield single to first, Turner scored on error, Castellanos safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Goldschmidt, Schwarber safe at third on error.3–3
- 6Stanton homered to center (415 feet).2–3
- 5Schwarber homered to right center (413 feet), Turner scored.2–2
- 2Wells homered to right (372 feet).0–2
- 1Bellinger homered to right (375 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML PHI +130 / NYY -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 5.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −7 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +36 Elo | NYY 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 30–1911th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 15404th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–52 | 48–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 37–44 | 39–50 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 45–57 | 46–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–5 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.