Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Otto KempBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Ryan McMahonBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Kemp homered to center (434 feet).3–4
- 2Grisham singled to right, McMahon scored.2–4
- 2Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Domínguez scored.2–3
- 2McMahon doubled to right, Stanton scored and Chisholm Jr. scored, Domínguez to third.2–2
- 2Kemp homered to right center (378 feet).2–0
- 2Castellanos homered to left (363 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / NYY +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- NYY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +3 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY 0 Elo | NYY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 3027–25 | Road vs home | 30–2113th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–52 | 48–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 38–44 | 39–51 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 47–57 | 48–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–5 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.