Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11McMahon singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Domínguez to third.4–5
- 10Bellinger tripled to center, Grisham scored.4–4
- 10Aranda hit sacrifice fly to left, Walls scored, Díaz to second, B. Lowe to third.4–3
- 9Volpe homered to left (366 feet).3–3
- 9J. Lowe homered to right (391 feet), Caballero scored.3–2
- 8Stanton singled to center, Peraza scored, Bellinger to second.1–2
- 8Grisham homered to right (382 feet).1–1
- 3B. Lowe doubled to right, Walls scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML TB +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- TB +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −16 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 32–2212th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 14th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–53 | 50–57 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–37 | 40–52 |
| Underdog | 35–16 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 45–63 | 49–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 18–17 NYY in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 35.