Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caminero homered to center (400 feet).0–4
- 3Díaz homered to right (341 feet), Walls scored.0–3
- 1Díaz homered to right (326 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / TB -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +12 | LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +31 Elo | LAD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3027–25 | Road vs home | 31–2920th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301550 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–63 | 56–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 35–56 | 20–38 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 58–52 | 46–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–3 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.