St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar doubled to center, Donovan scored, Herrera to third.5–3
- 8Walker singled to center, Burleson scored on error and Winn scored on throwing error by third baseman Freeland, Walker to second.4–3
- 6Nootbaar grounded out to shortstop, Herrera scored, Burleson to second.2–3
- 4Pages steals third, scored on throwing error by catcher Pagés.1–3
- 4Pages scored on throwing error by catcher Pagés.1–3
- 3Ohtani homered to center (421 feet), Call scored.1–2
- 3Donovan reached on bunt single to third, Walker scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML STL +170 / LAD -205
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.8%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- STL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +76 Elo | LAD 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–34 | Road vs home | 36–229th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 15512nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–59 | 49–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 37–57 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 61–54 | 59–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–11 LAD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.