Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-5
- Ryan FernandezPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Burleson grounded out to first, Nootbaar scored.9–1
- 5Shaw homered to left (395 feet).9–0
- 4Happ singled to right, Tucker scored, Kelly to second.8–0
- 3Shaw tripled to left, Swanson scored.7–0
- 2Kelly singled to right, Suzuki scored.6–0
- 2Busch homered to right (374 feet), Swanson scored and Shaw scored.5–0
- 1Kelly singled to right, Tucker scored on throwing error by right fielder Walker, Kelly to second.2–0
- 1Tucker singled to right, Busch scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML CHC -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | 0 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +16 Elo | CHC 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 33–2414th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301537 | Elo rating | 149221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–61 | 58–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–39 | 22–36 |
| Underdog | 17–22 | 36–23 |
| Overs–unders | 61–54 | 61–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 18–16 STL in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 34.