Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement homered to left center (395 feet).5–4
- 8Freeman walked, Freeland scored, Smith to second, Ohtani to third.4–4
- 8Barger homered to right center (410 feet).4–3
- 8Guerrero Jr. homered to center (422 feet).3–3
- 6France singled to right, Bichette scored.2–3
- 2Freeman walked, Rojas scored, Betts to second, Ohtani to third.1–3
- 1Freeman homered to left center (390 feet).1–2
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (400 feet).1–1
- 1Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Bichette scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML TOR +155 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- TOR +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +7 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +43 Elo | LAD 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 38–238th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301519 | Elo rating | 15532nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–50 | 51–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–29 | 39–58 |
| Underdog | 40–21 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 68–50 | 60–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–5 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.