Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Betts scored, Freeman to third.1–5
- 7Smith walked, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second, Betts to third.1–4
- 7Betts grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Freeland scored, Ohtani to second.1–3
- 5Betts homered to left (389 feet), Ohtani scored.1–2
- 2Barger singled to right, Bichette scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML TOR +115 / LAD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | 0 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +48 Elo | LAD 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 36–2310th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15482nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–48 | 49–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–29 | 37–58 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 67–49 | 59–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–3 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.