Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsh hit sacrifice fly to left, Bader scored.4–2
- 5Wilson singled to center, Stott scored, Wilson to second.3–2
- 5Sosa homered to left center (403 feet).2–2
- 4Harper doubled to right, Turner scored.1–2
- 1Pederson homered to right (352 feet), Semien scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML PHI -165 / TEX +140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- TEX +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 3.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +27 Elo | PHI 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 36–2310th of 30 |
| 30th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 151113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–58 | 62–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 43–50 | 29–34 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders | 53–63 | 50–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–3 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.