Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-5
- Merrill KellyPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner homered to center (417 feet), Sosa scored and Stott scored.9–1
- 9Stott doubled to left, Castellanos scored and Kepler scored, Sosa to third.6–1
- 4Turner doubled to left, Stott scored and Kemp scored.4–1
- 4Marsh homered to right (363 feet).2–1
- 1Jung singled to right, Seager scored, Semien to third.1–1
- 1Schwarber homered to right (444 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / TEX +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 3.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −1 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +26 Elo | PHI 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–28 | Road vs home | 36–218th of 30 |
| 30th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 151512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–58 | 62–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 42–50 | 29–33 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 33–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–62 | 49–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–3 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.