New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ryan McMahonBatting1-3
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Rowdy TellezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tellez singled to center, A. García scored and Pederson scored, Langford to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML NYY +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +14 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +29 Elo | TEX 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 35–208th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 6th of 301529 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–62 | 60–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–56 | 28–33 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders | 53–60 | 49–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–8 TEX in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.