Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3
- Kumar RockerPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Young scored on a passed ball by Higashioka.0–6
- 6Young scored on a passed ball by Higashioka.0–6
- 6Young tripled to right, Crawford scored.0–5
- 6Crawford singled to right, Polanco scored.0–4
- 5Raleigh homered to right center (364 feet).0–3
- 5Young homered to right (456 feet).0–2
- 4Suárez scored on Rocker wild pitch.0–1
- 4Suárez scored on Rocker wild pitch.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML TEX +145 / SEA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -156
- TEX +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.3 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +4 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +29 Elo | SEA 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3023–32 | Road vs home | 28–2417th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–52 | 46–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 19–47 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–63 | 59–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 14–21 SEA in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 35.