Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schanuel homered to right center (379 feet), Trout scored.6–3
- 8Heim walked, Higashioka scored, Jung to second, Carter to third.6–1
- 8Carter singled to center, Langford scored, Higashioka to second.5–1
- 8A. García homered to left (375 feet), Semien scored.4–1
- 6Semien singled to right, Seager scored.2–1
- 4Rengifo singled to center, Moncada scored, O'Hoppe to third.1–1
- 4Langford singled to right, Semien scored, Langford thrown out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -120 / LAA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +1 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +47 Elo | TEX 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–32 | Road vs home | 28–2518th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 146226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–52 | 57–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–32 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 48–30 |
| Overs–unders | 45–63 | 59–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 21–14 LAA in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 35.