Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Kyle HigashiokaBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to left, Campero scored, Trout to second, Neto to third.5–8
- 8Higashioka homered to left center (411 feet).5–7
- 6Neto doubled to left, Moncada scored.4–7
- 6Moncada singled to right, d'Arnaud scored and Campero scored.4–6
- 6Campero doubled to left, Adell scored, d'Arnaud to third.4–4
- 6Duran singled to left, Higashioka scored and Smith scored on throwing error by left fielder Ward.4–3
- 5A. García singled to left, Haggerty scored, Langford to second.2–3
- 4Campero hit into fielder's choice to right, Adell scored, d'Arnaud out at second.1–3
- 4Higashioka homered to left (383 feet).1–2
- 1Adell singled to right, Neto scored on error and Schanuel scored on throwing error by right fielder A. García.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 54%
- ML TEX +110 / LAA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 43.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −5 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +44 Elo | TEX 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–31 | Road vs home | 27–2520th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Elo rating | 146026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–51 | 56–51 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–32 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 48–30 |
| Overs–unders | 44–63 | 58–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 21–13 LAA in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 34.