Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Raleigh homered to center (421 feet).1–4
- 5Trout homered to center (443 feet), Newman scored.0–4
- 5Rengifo scored on wild pitch by Gilbert, Newman to second.0–2
- 5Rengifo scored on Gilbert wild pitch, Newman to second on wild pitch by Gilbert.0–2
- 5Newman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, d'Arnaud scored, Campero out at second, Rengifo to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML SEA -175 / LAA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +3 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +43 Elo | SEA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 25–2520th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301519 | Elo rating | 145527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–60 | 54–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–45 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 46–30 |
| Overs–unders | 59–46 | 57–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 18–16 LAA in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 34.