Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Polanco homered to right center (389 feet).4–2
- 7Neto singled to left, Rengifo scored, Neto to second.3–2
- 5Arozarena homered to left (376 feet), Raleigh scored.3–1
- 5Rodríguez homered to right (377 feet).1–1
- 1Schanuel singled to right, Trout scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 57%
- ML SEA +120 / LAA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- LAA: Elo 45.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAA -130
- SEA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −8 | SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +30 Elo | SEA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3026–24 | Road vs home | 24–2320th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Elo rating | 145826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–59 | 53–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–44 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 26–15 | 45–29 |
| Overs–unders | 58–44 | 56–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 16–15 LAA in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 31.