Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Williamson singled to center, Polanco scored.7–2
- 6Crawford reached on infield single to second, Polanco scored, Canzone to second.6–2
- 6Canzone singled to center, Arozarena scored and Naylor scored, Polanco to third.5–2
- 6Raleigh homered to right (416 feet).3–2
- 5Neto hit sacrifice fly to center, O'Hoppe scored, Rengifo to third.2–2
- 4Arozarena homered to center (411 feet).2–1
- 3Rodríguez homered to center (422 feet).1–1
- 2Ward homered to center (404 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML SEA -135 / LAA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +38 Elo | SEA 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3027–25 | Road vs home | 25–2420th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 10th of 301517 | Elo rating | 145826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–60 | 54–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–45 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 46–29 |
| Overs–unders | 58–46 | 56–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 17–16 LAA in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 33.