Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Heim singled to center, Carter scored.4–6
- 6Rengifo homered to right (377 feet), O'Hoppe scored.3–6
- 6Ward homered to center (408 feet).3–4
- 6Jung homered to center (412 feet).3–3
- 5Neto doubled to left, Campero scored.2–3
- 5A. García safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Campero, Smith scored and Seager scored, Semien safe at third.2–2
- 3Newman homered to left center (409 feet), Rengifo scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 66%
- ML TEX -225 / LAA +185
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -197
- LAA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 3.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −7 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +65 Elo | TEX 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3022–30 | Road vs home | 26–2520th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Elo rating | 145826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–50 | 55–51 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–31 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 47–30 |
| Overs–unders | 43–63 | 57–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 21–12 LAA in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 33.