Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rooker grounded into fielder's choice to third, Urías scored, Kurtz out at second.3–1
- 5Raleigh singled to left, Williamson scored.3–0
- 4Garver hit sacrifice fly to center, Naylor scored.2–0
- 2Naylor homered to right center (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -125 / ATH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.7%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- ATH +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.4 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +47 Elo | SEA 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 20–3129th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 10th of 301517 | Elo rating | 145528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–61 | 56–52 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–46 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 47–38 |
| Overs–unders | 59–47 | 60–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 25–8 ATH in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 33.