Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4
- Logan EvansPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Andujar doubled to left, Soderstrom scored.1–6
- 5Langeliers homered to left center (392 feet).1–5
- 4Polanco singled to right, Arozarena scored.1–4
- 3Andujar doubled to center, Langeliers scored.0–4
- 3Rooker homered to left (410 feet), Butler scored and Kurtz scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML SEA -110 / ATH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- ATH: Elo 43.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- SEA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.3 – 5.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −15 | SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +49 Elo | SEA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 20–3229th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Elo rating | 145428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–61 | 56–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–46 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 47–39 |
| Overs–unders | 59–48 | 60–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 26–8 ATH in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 34.