Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena homered to left center (392 feet).4–5
- 7Andujar homered to left center (402 feet).3–5
- 7Polanco homered to left center (394 feet), Naylor scored.3–4
- 5Hernaiz homered to left (410 feet).1–4
- 4Andujar homered to left (396 feet).1–3
- 1Soderstrom doubled to left, Langeliers scored.1–2
- 1Rooker homered to center (416 feet).1–1
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (413 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -150 / ATH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.1 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +31 Elo | SEA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 21–3229th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 13th of 301515 | Elo rating | 145727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–62 | 57–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–46 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 47–39 |
| Overs–unders | 59–49 | 60–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 26–9 ATH in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 35.