New York Yankees at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to catcher, Edwards scored.12–13
- 9Edwards singled to right, Sanoja scored and Marsee scored on fielding error by right fielder Caballero, Edwards to third.12–12
- 9Volpe doubled to center, McMahon scored.12–10
- 9McMahon singled to center, Caballero scored.11–10
- 8Volpe homered to left (421 feet).10–10
- 7Ramírez singled to left, Marsee scored, Edwards to third.9–10
- 7Sanoja homered to left (378 feet).9–9
- 7Stowers homered to left (362 feet), Ramírez scored, Lopez scored and Hicks scored.9–8
- 7Grisham homered to right (403 feet), Volpe scored and Wells scored.9–4
- 5Hicks singled to center, Edwards scored and Hernández scored, Lopez to third.6–4
- 5Sanoja homered to right (361 feet), Wagaman scored.6–2
- 5Bellinger singled to right, Grisham scored and Domínguez scored, Bellinger to second.6–0
- 5Domínguez singled to center, Volpe scored, Grisham to third.4–0
- 4Stanton homered to left (409 feet), Grisham scored and Domínguez scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -160 / MIA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 3.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +36 Elo | NYY 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 24–2926th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 4th of 301537 | Elo rating | 148124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–58 | 61–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–53 | 2–16 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 59–30 |
| Overs–unders | 50–59 | 49–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–3 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.