New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Jung homered to left center (401 feet), Seager scored and Langford scored.5–8
- 9Pederson homered to right (408 feet).5–5
- 4Stanton homered to center (427 feet), Goldschmidt scored.5–4
- 2Heim scored on pickoff error by pitcher Fried.3–4
- 2Heim scored on pickoff error by pitcher Fried.3–4
- 2Duran singled to left, Jung scored and Smith scored, Heim to second.3–3
- 2Smith singled to center, Langford scored, Jung to second.3–1
- 2Bellinger singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Rosario to second.3–0
- 2Rosario singled to center, Wells scored, Goldschmidt to third.2–0
- 1Goldschmidt homered to left (419 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -135 / TEX +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- TEX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 3.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +10 Elo | NYY 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 15th of 3026–30 | Road vs home | 34–209th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 5th of 301531 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–61 | 59–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–55 | 28–33 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–60 | 48–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–7 TEX in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.