Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford homered to right (370 feet), Mastrobuoni scored.3–4
- 5Naylor doubled to left, Young scored, Rodríguez to third.3–2
- 3Semien doubled to center, Smith scored.3–1
- 3Smith singled to left, Tellez scored.2–1
- 3Tellez doubled to right, Pederson scored on fielding error by right fielder Canzone.1–1
- 2Young walked, Suárez scored, Canzone to second, Polanco to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 63%
- ML TEX +160 / SEA -190
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -170
- TEX +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +28 Elo | SEA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3023–33 | Road vs home | 29–2417th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–53 | 47–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 20–47 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–64 | 59–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 14–22 SEA in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 36.