New York Yankees at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-3
- Cam SchlittlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Ramírez homered to center (418 feet).0–2
- 1Ramírez homered to left center (421 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML NYY -105 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 45.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- NYY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +8 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +31 Elo | NYY 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 13th of 3026–28 | Road vs home | 25–2926th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 4th of 301536 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–59 | 62–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 40–54 | 2–16 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 60–30 |
| Overs–unders | 51–59 | 50–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–4 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.