Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6A. García homered to left center (381 feet).4–5
- 4Crawford homered to right center (408 feet), Canzone scored.3–5
- 4Tellez doubled to center, A. García scored.3–3
- 3Rodríguez homered to right center (391 feet), Raleigh scored.2–3
- 3Seager homered to center (396 feet), Smith scored.2–1
- 2Polanco homered to right (404 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML TEX -145 / SEA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- SEA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −14 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +4 Elo | TEX 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3024–34 | Road vs home | 30–2517th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–53 | 47–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 20–49 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–65 | 60–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 15–23 SEA in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 38.