Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Kyle HigashiokaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Duran singled to right, Haggerty scored, Langford to third.6–4
- 11Langford singled to right, A. García scored, Haggerty to third.5–4
- 10Arozarena homered to left center (424 feet), Young scored.4–4
- 10Semien grounded out to shortstop, Higashioka scored, Seager to second, Osuna to third.4–2
- 10Higashioka singled to center, Duran scored.3–2
- 6Rodríguez doubled to center, Arozarena scored.2–2
- 6Crawford scored on a disengagement violation, Arozarena to second on a disengagement violation.2–1
- 6Crawford scored on a disengagement violation, Arozarena to second on a disengagement violation.2–1
- 3Higashioka homered to left center (381 feet), Tellez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML TEX +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +8 | TEX: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +31 Elo | SEA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 25th of 3023–34 | Road vs home | 30–2415th of 30 |
| 30th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 13th of 301512 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–53 | 47–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 20–48 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–65 | 59–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 14–23 SEA in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 37.