Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wilson homered to left (381 feet).3–13
- 8Sosa homered to center (429 feet).3–12
- 6Schwarber homered to right center (390 feet), Sosa scored, Wilson scored and Turner scored.3–11
- 6Wilson singled to left, Stott scored, Sosa to second.3–7
- 6Bader homered to left (391 feet), Realmuto scored and Castellanos scored.3–6
- 3Schwarber homered to right (427 feet), Sosa scored.3–3
- 3Westburg homered to left (365 feet).3–1
- 2O'Neill homered to left (417 feet), Rutschman scored.2–1
- 1Harper homered to center (417 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML BAL +165 / PHI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.4%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -177
- BAL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 5.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −19 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +59 Elo | PHI 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3024–34 | Road vs home | 35–208th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 15364th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–57 | 54–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 40–49 |
| Underdog | 35–27 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 51–61 | 51–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–3 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.