Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sosa homered to left (356 feet), Robert Jr. scored.6–3
- 9Montgomery grounded out to first, Quero scored, Robert Jr. to second.6–1
- 3Marsh homered to right center (396 feet), Realmuto scored.6–0
- 3Schwarber homered to right (441 feet), Turner scored.4–0
- 2Kemp hit sacrifice fly to left, Marsh scored.2–0
- 2Kepler hit sacrifice fly to center, Castellanos scored, Marsh to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML PHI -180 / CHW +150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −4 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +70 Elo | PHI 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 23–3127th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 143029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–54 | 63–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 38–46 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 63–39 |
| Overs–unders | 47–59 | 50–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–2 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.