Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Montgomery reached on infield single to first, Benintendi scored on error, Sosa to second, Sosa safe at third on fielding error by pitcher Johnson.2–6
- 8Sosa singled to center, Vargas scored, Benintendi to third.2–5
- 4Robert Jr. homered to right (351 feet), Benintendi scored.2–4
- 3Montgomery homered to right (395 feet), Sosa scored.2–2
- 3Harper doubled to center, Kepler scored and Stott scored, Schwarber to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 68%
- ML PHI -240 / CHW +200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −5 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +119 Elo | PHI 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3027–26 | Road vs home | 22–3127th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 142729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–53 | 62–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 38–45 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 62–39 |
| Overs–unders | 47–58 | 50–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–1 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.