Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike VasilPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsh homered to right (371 feet).3–9
- 7Quero homered to left center (368 feet), Teel scored and Robert Jr. scored.2–9
- 7Vargas homered to left (378 feet), Sosa scored and Benintendi scored.2–6
- 7Sosa singled to right, Tauchman scored.2–3
- 4Montgomery homered to left center (379 feet).2–2
- 4Kemp singled to center, Castellanos scored, Marsh to second.2–1
- 4Castellanos singled to left, Harper scored.1–1
- 2Teel homered to right (366 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -145 / CHW +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −12 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +84 Elo | PHI 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–27 | Road vs home | 23–3227th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301539 | Elo rating | 142929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–54 | 63–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 39–46 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 63–40 |
| Overs–unders | 48–59 | 51–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–2 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.