Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harper homered to center (417 feet), Marsh scored.7–5
- 8Báez tripled to left, McKinstry scored and Dingler scored.7–3
- 7Castellanos homered to center (428 feet), Realmuto scored.5–3
- 7Realmuto doubled to left, Harper scored.5–1
- 7Torres homered to center (424 feet).5–0
- 7Báez homered to left center (405 feet), Dingler scored.4–0
- 3Carpenter homered to right center (381 feet).2–0
- 3Keith homered to right (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML DET -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +11 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 4th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 34–196th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15364th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–56 | 53–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 38–38 | 39–48 |
| Underdog | 17–18 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 59–52 | 50–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–6 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.