Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brant HurterPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8McKinstry doubled to right, Pérez scored.2–12
- 6McKinstry grounded out to first, Pérez scored.2–11
- 6Pérez tripled to right, Greene scored.2–10
- 6Greene doubled to left, Carpenter scored.2–9
- 5Ibáñez singled to center, Dingler scored, Vierling to third.2–8
- 5McKinstry homered to right center (384 feet), Pérez scored.2–7
- 5Greene homered to right center (420 feet), Carpenter scored.2–5
- 5Torres homered to right center (386 feet).2–3
- 4Dingler singled to center, Greene scored and Pérez scored.2–2
- 2Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to right, McCann scored, Carroll to third.2–0
- 1Marte singled to right, Carroll scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML ARI +130 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- DET: Elo 51.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- ARI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −16 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +7 Elo | DET 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 15th of 3025–28 | Road vs home | 34–219th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–53 | 52–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 27–36 | 36–38 |
| Underdog | 27–17 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 56–51 | 57–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–3 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.