Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas homered to right center (371 feet).1–5
- 6Dingler homered to left (379 feet).0–5
- 4Vierling doubled to center, Dingler scored.0–4
- 4Ibáñez homered to left (391 feet).0–3
- 2Báez singled to center, Ibáñez scored, Dingler to third.0–2
- 1Torkelson singled to center, Jones scored, Torkelson to second, Torkelson safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Thomas.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML ARI +115 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- DET: Elo 52.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −10 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +14 Elo | DET 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–27 | Road vs home | 33–2110th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–52 | 51–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 27–36 | 35–38 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 56–50 | 57–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–2 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.