Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perdomo homered to right (387 feet).2–7
- 6Rogers homered to left (355 feet), McKinstry scored.1–7
- 6McKinstry doubled, Pérez scored.1–5
- 5Carpenter homered to right (406 feet), Keith scored.1–4
- 5Keith singled to center, Rogers scored.1–2
- 4Perdomo singled to right, Carroll scored.1–1
- 3Carpenter tripled to right, Keith scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML ARI +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- DET: Elo 49.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −10 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +3 Elo | ARI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 35–218th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 151611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–54 | 53–56 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–36 | 37–38 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 57–51 | 58–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.