Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-3
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marsh homered to right center (397 feet).0–5
- 4Stott tripled to center, Kepler scored.0–4
- 2Kepler homered to right center (371 feet), Marsh scored.0–3
- 2Marsh doubled to right, Castellanos scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML BAL +120 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −24 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–35 | Road vs home | 36–206th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 21st of 301490 | Elo rating | 15394th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–58 | 55–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 41–49 |
| Underdog | 35–28 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 52–61 | 52–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.