New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting3-3
- Jack LeiterPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Goldschmidt homered to left (395 feet).3–2
- 5Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.2–2
- 4Domínguez scored on throwing error by catcher Higashioka, Volpe stole third.2–1
- 4Domínguez scored on throwing error by catcher Higashioka, Volpe stole third.2–1
- 4Volpe singled to left, Bellinger scored, Domínguez to second.1–1
- 3Haggerty singled to right, Duran scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / TEX +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 3.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −7 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +4 Elo | TEX 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 36–205th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–63 | 61–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–56 | 29–33 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders | 53–61 | 49–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–9 TEX in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.