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Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast

FinalRangers Sports Network, Victory+, DBACKS.TV, MLB.TV

Away

Diamondbacks

58-62

3–2

at

Home

Rangers

61-60

ARI 41%TEX 59%

You didn't pick this one.

Globe Life Field · Rangers Sports Network, Victory+, DBACKS.TV, MLB.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.

TEX75%50%75%ARIStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Diamondbacks
  • Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Jake WoodfordPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rangers
  • Josh SmithBatting1-3
  • Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Marte homered to left (445 feet).3–2
  • 7Marte reached on infield single to second, Herrera scored, Perdomo to second.2–2
  • 3Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Higashioka scored, Smith to third.1–2
  • 3Alexander homered to left center (411 feet).1–1
  • 2A. García grounded out to shortstop, Pederson scored, Langford to second.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rangers 59%

LeanMiss
ARI 41%TEX 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
TEX 59%
ML ARI +130 / TEX -160
Pre-line forecast
TEX 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TEX 52%
Ratings vs. market
−6.8 pts
TEX: Elo 51.8%, market 58.6%
Fair odds
TEX -142
ARI +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ARI 3.9 – 4.6 TEX
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorARITEXWhy
Team rating15051511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+5−6ARI: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTEX +12 EloTEX 51.8%
Market-implied ratingsTEX 54.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTEX 54.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTEX 58.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
ARIStatTEX
6th of 304.9Runs scored4.125th of 30
25th of 304.9Runs allowed3.61st of 30
17th of 300.0Margin+0.58th of 30
6th of 306–4Last 104–619th of 30
16th of 3027–32Road vs home37–2410th of 30
28th of 301495Opponent Elo149625th of 30
15th of 301505Elo rating151113th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DiamondbacksRangers
145015001550league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonARITEX
Run line61–5862–58
Last 107–35–5
Favorite29–3729–35
Underdog32–2133–23
Overs–unders62–5751–69
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ARI 6–8 TEX in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.