Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching4.2 IP, 10 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Adrian Del CastilloBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kaiser doubled to center, Carroll scored.6–13
- 7Doyle homered to left center (382 feet), Karros scored.6–12
- 7Karros doubled to left, Tovar scored.4–12
- 5Perdomo singled to right, Marte scored.3–12
- 5Marte doubled to left, Alexander scored and Carroll scored.3–11
- 5Carroll singled to center, McCann scored, Alexander to third.3–9
- 5Alexander singled to center, Thomas scored, McCann to third.3–8
- 5McCann singled to right, Del Castillo scored and Locklear scored, Thomas to third.3–7
- 5Thomas reached on infield single to first, Gurriel Jr. scored, Locklear to second, Del Castillo to third.3–5
- 3Karros singled to left, Tovar scored.3–4
- 2Marte singled to right, McCann scored, Alexander to third.2–4
- 2Amador doubled to right, Fulford scored and Fernández scored, Amador out stretching at third.2–3
- 1Del Castillo homered to right (403 feet), Perdomo scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 71%
- ML COL +230 / ARI -285
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 69.8%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -244
- COL +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 5.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −5 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +146 Elo | ARI 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 66.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.8 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 30th of 3014–44 | Road vs home | 29–3024th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 30th of 301379 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–60 | 59–58 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 28–37 |
| Underdog | 54–56 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders | 53–63 | 60–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–25 ARI in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 34.