Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Perdomo scored.5–6
- 6Tovar singled to center, Farmer scored, Freeman to third.5–5
- 5Del Castillo doubled to center, Perdomo scored.4–5
- 5Carroll homered to right center (437 feet).4–4
- 3Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Marte scored.4–3
- 3Marte doubled to right, Carroll scored.4–2
- 3Bernabel singled to center, Tovar scored, Beck to second.4–1
- 2Farmer singled to left, Karros scored.3–1
- 2Doyle homered to center (431 feet), Beck scored.2–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Marte scored, Perdomo to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 66%
- ML COL +185 / ARI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 70.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -197
- COL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 5.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −4 | COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +152 Elo | ARI 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 68.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 3014–43 | Road vs home | 28–3025th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301380 | Elo rating | 150417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–60 | 59–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 28–36 |
| Underdog | 53–56 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–63 | 59–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–24 ARI in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 33.