Arizona Diamondbacks at Athletics, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Blaze AlexanderBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bleday homered to right (394 feet).6–4
- 9Alexander singled to center, Herrera scored, Carroll to second.6–3
- 7Schuemann grounded out to third, Bleday scored.5–3
- 7Alexander homered to center (398 feet).5–2
- 5Kurtz singled to right, Bleday scored and Urshela scored.4–2
- 3Thomas singled to left, Locklear scored.4–0
- 2Carroll singled to center, Thomas scored, Kaiser to second.3–0
- 2Herrera hit sacrifice fly to right, Locklear scored, Thomas to third.2–0
- 2Kaiser walked, McCarthy scored, Thomas to second, Locklear to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 54%
- ML ARI +110 / ATH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 48.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +7 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +13 Elo | ARI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 23–3328th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 145826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–56 | 59–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–36 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 48–39 |
| Overs–unders | 57–54 | 60–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–3 ATH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
