Arizona Diamondbacks at Athletics, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll homered to right (398 feet).7–2
- 7Del Castillo hit sacrifice fly to center, Perdomo scored.6–2
- 6Thomas homered to right center (404 feet).5–2
- 5Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Alexander scored and Carroll scored, Perdomo to second.4–2
- 5Marte grounded out to second, Thomas scored, Carroll to second, Alexander to third.2–2
- 3Soderstrom doubled to left, Kurtz scored and Langeliers scored.1–2
- 1Marte homered to right center (382 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 53%
- ML ARI +105 / ATH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- ATH: Elo 50.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +12 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +3 Elo | ATH 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–31 | Road vs home | 23–3228th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 146126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–56 | 59–53 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–36 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 48–39 |
| Overs–unders | 57–53 | 60–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–3 ATH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.
