San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Fermin singled to right, Cronenworth scored, Iglesias to second.10–5
- 11Cronenworth grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bogaerts scored, Laureano out at second.9–5
- 11Laureano singled to right, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.8–5
- 11Merrill hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored.7–5
- 11Arraez singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to second.6–5
- 8Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (439 feet), Perdomo scored.5–5
- 7Laureano doubled to right, Merrill scored and Machado scored, Laureano to third.5–3
- 6Tatis Jr. walked, Cronenworth scored, Fermin to second, Iglesias to third.3–3
- 4Perdomo scored on Darvish wild pitch, Locklear to second on wild pitch by Darvish.2–3
- 4Perdomo scored on Darvish wild pitch, Locklear to second on wild pitch by Darvish.2–3
- 2Cronenworth doubled to center, Laureano scored.2–2
- 2Bogaerts homered to left center (419 feet).1–2
- 1Gurriel Jr. homered to left (404 feet), Perdomo scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML SD -125 / ARI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- SD: Elo 48.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +18 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +14 Elo | ARI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 27–2824th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–50 | 57–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–34 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 37–16 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–66 | 58–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 16–18 ARI in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 34.